Boom in the city, recession in the stock.

Even if common citizens are not much interested in the terminology of Reserve Bank, they need to know that there is a bullishness in the general offline market and why there is a bearish spiral in the stock market? When the war between Israel (the correct pronunciation is Israel) and Hamas began, experts predicted that Ukraine would not be as easy to digest as the new war market. Periodic surveys of consumer and business factors by the Reserve Bank of India are often more informative than growth, inflation and other macro-economic data.

The economic forecasts contained in this survey also influence the prevailing ideologies of economists. The economy is entering a busy festive season and this collective optimism is also reflected in recent macroeconomic data. For example, inflation is falling, industrial production is rising, unemployment is even lower, tax revenues are improving and sector-wide growth is improving. But in the meantime we should not ignore the obstacles. For example, the manufacturing sector in industry continues to lag behind. There is no real indication of a bullish trend. Capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector remains below 70 percent. Costs of small business owners go up but profits do not go up.

Leaving aside the decline during the Covid period, the decline has been roughly the same over the last seven or eight years. If capacity utilization were to rise above this level, there would be significant investment in new capacity, but this does not appear to be happening. The report on new orders from the manufacturing sector also confirms this. If we compare such orders to a year ago, there has been a significant decline in four quarters and it has come down from 40 percent in the April-June quarter to almost zero. Surprisingly, despite this apparent decline, the Business Expectations Index is at its highest ever level of 135.4 points. Which shows that trading has increased compared to production. The number of people trading the same product by keeping their small factory closed has increased.

Parallel findings from consumer surveys show a less optimistic mood. Certainly, the assessment of the current general economic situation has been steadily improving over the past few years, but the index has not gone above the level of the end of 2019. This was the time when the economic situation started to decline. There are still a large number of people who feel that their condition has worsened. However, those who are feeling well are quickly reducing this gap, i.e. taking new leaps. As far as employment is concerned, even here those who experience a decline experience some improvement in the previous situation, but it does not save the market.

Employment conditions have improved, but this has been largely through the self-efforts of the new generation, with no role or assistance from the government, as the number of self-employed people has increased rapidly. Self-employed is a big buzzword and is now the main trend line of India's new generation. This has occurred as an alternative to the decline in paid employment. This may mean that the self-employed category includes people who do not find regular work or are part-time workers. These are the people who are forced to do so due to lack of salaried employment. If so, employment reform figures may be misleading.

Another figure that has been much commented on is the healthy growth in bank credit. The highest growth has been in retail and personal loans. This may be because many companies have plenty of cash and do not need to take out loans. At the same time, more and more consumers are feeling confident about future income. They feel that they can easily repay the loan for vehicle, house etc. The Reserve Bank has continued to warn that this debt trend needs to be monitored, as rising debt among ordinary households is a social risk. The overall picture of the economy appears broadly optimistic. Some contrasting colors are a part of it. The economy is moving towards the New-Old-Normal estimate of a growth rate of more than 6 percent. This is a good thing from a global perspective.