Rising crude prices will cripple India's economy


- It's time to look for alternatives to petrol-diesel

- The main reason for the rise in crude prices is the increase in prices by Saudi Arabia and the increase in demand for petrol-diesel globally. The Russia-Ukraine war caused a shortage of crude. As demand increases so does the balance of supply and demand. The rest of the Saudis have announced a price hike, which has led to a drought-like situation.

Petrol-diesel prices have come down as the central government last month reduced the excise duty on petrol by Rs 2 and diesel by Rs 4. Petrol-diesel prices are expected to rebound before people can enjoy the relief due to the fall in prices as global crude oil prices have started rising.

On Friday, crude oil prices were quoted at ૨૫ 15 a barrel in global markets. Given the state of global crude production and the fact that crude is still expected to become more expensive, there are fears that petrol prices may cross another century. Diesel is also close to petrol so if diesel does not cross the century then nothing will come but it will get closer to the century.

Many factors are responsible for the rise in crude prices, but the main ones are Saudi Arabia's rise in prices and global demand for petrol and diesel. The decline in crude production due to the Russia-Ukraine war was due to the shortage of crude. It has now increased the demand so the balance of demand and supply has been disturbed. The rest of Saudi Arabia has announced a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has led to a drought-like situation.

OPEC has announced that it will increase crude production in July-August, as Saudi Arabia is doing the world a favor. The world's crude business is run at the behest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This organization of 12 countries is making its mark on the world. About 20 percent of crude oil is stored in these 12 countries.

Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial, Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela are among the 15 countries in OPEC. OPEC sets the international price of crude oil in the world. All these trading countries reduce prices when they want and increase when they want.

If these countries create artificial shortages by reducing production, then prices will go up. After earning a decent amount, they can reduce the price by increasing the production. This game has been going on for years.

As a result, OPEC countries become richer and other countries are robbed. India is dependent on these countries for its petrol-diesel needs and this dependence will not diminish in any way.

Countries, including Saudi Arabia, know this, so they take advantage of it and fill their homes. His mentality is that even if the bridegroom dies, the bride dies, but Gore's thirst is filled. Whatever happens in the world, our business should be booming. Even now he has started this game.

However, all this will make our condition worse as our population is huge and our needs are very high. India's arrangement to buy crude oil at cheaper prices with Russia has also been a fiasco. No one is willing to insure crude from Russia. Because of this we have to take crude from Russia at our own risk. If anything happens to this crude ship, everything will be looted.

We can't afford to lose everything in the process of getting cheaper, so we have to buy crude from America OPEC which is expensive. It will also cause prices to rise.

For India, the depreciating rupee is also a cause for concern. The dollar is the internationally recognized currency so we have to pay for crude oil in US dollars. Now that crude prices have risen and the rupee has depreciated on the other side, we have been hit on both sides as we have to spend more rupees to get dollars. Crude prices have risen so we need more dollars so we spend more rupee.

The rupee is currently hovering around 7 against the US dollar. When Modi became the Prime Minister, it was 3 rupees per US dollar. This means that the rupee has depreciated by 3%. The dollar has risen by 50 rupees in eight years, so we have to pay 3% more to buy dollars compared to 2014.

Due to the depreciation of the rupee, our crude import bill continues to rise. At present, we spend Rs 10 lakh crore a year on crude oil.

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has predicted that if crude prices continue to rise, the crude import bill will cross Rs 3 lakh crore. If such a huge amount is spent on crude, then there is nothing left to spend for development in the country. It is time to reduce our dependence on crude oil and look for alternatives to petrol-diesel as everything we earn is used for crude oil and we are left to fend for ourselves. If all the alternatives to petrol-diesel, including electric vehicles, are not fully utilized, we will be in a very bad situation in the future.

Crude reached 7 147 in 2008

Dr. When Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister, the price of crude was around ૫ 150. In July 2009, the price of crude oil reached a record high of ૨૭ 17.5. Even though the price of crude has been above ૪ 150 for a long time, the Manmohan Singh government did not allow petrol to cross Rs 70 and diesel Rs 50.

The Manmohan Singh government did not allow the burden to fall on the people by giving continuous subsidies. When the Modi government reduced the price of crude, instead of giving the benefit to the people, it increased the revenue of the government by increasing the excise duty. When Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014, the excise duty on petrol was Rs 7.5 per liter, which has now risen to Rs 4.5.

Although the Modi government last month reduced the excise duty on petrol by Rs 3 and earlier in November 2021, the excise duty is around Rs 3. A year and a half ago, the excise duty was Rs.

When Modi became the Prime Minister, the excise duty on diesel was Rs 4.5 per liter, which has now risen to Rs 4.5 per liter. In November, the excise duty on diesel was reduced by Rs 10. Earlier, the excise duty was Rs 41.5. Earlier, diesel was cheaper than petrol but due to increase in excise duty, the prices of both have remained the same.

Crude will reach 5 175, the global recession will come

Goldman Sachs, the world's leading analyst firm, has predicted that crude prices will become more expensive in the coming year, amid concerns around the world over the rise in crude prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that crude prices will cross ૩૫ 12 a barrel in 12 months. According to Goldman's Damien Kurvalin, crude prices will not ease until the end of 203 and could rise to ડો 150 a barrel. JPMorgan's forecast is 15. According to most analysts, if crude oil stays between 50 and ૦૦ 100 a barrel, the economy will not be adversely affected, but if it crosses the ૧ 100 level, the economies of all the countries of the world will start faltering. The situation is the same now so the whole world will be in the grip of economic recession. There is a way to increase production to control crude prices but the capacity for storage of crude is limited. An even bigger problem is refining crude into petrol-diesel. Due to the limited capacity of refineries in the world, even if more crude is extracted from the land, not all crude can be made usable so there is no increase in production.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A sign of the second revolution in China after Mao's revolution

Image
- Inhumane atrocities on the people caused outrage as the communist leader himself lived in Ayyashi. - In almost all the big cities of China, people are holding violent protests and gradually these protests are turning into demands for democracy instead of lockdown protests. Political analysts believe that the cause of this protest may be the lockdown imposed due to Corona, but the real reason is the growing dissatisfaction and outrage against the communist regime of China. Due to the increasing cases of Corona in China, there has been a flare-up after the Chinese government imposed a zero covid policy. Under the zero covid policy, lockdown has been imposed in areas where corona cases are high. In big cities in China, people are not allowed to go out and are being forced to stay indoors. On November 25, due to the lockdown, a fire broke out in an apartment in Xinjiang, even though people were not allowed to go out in the name of lockdown, 10 people perished. Due to this incident, pe
Read more

Talk of Delhi: Reconciliation with Gehlot, Pilot supporters confused

Image
New Delhi: A meeting called by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge to end the fight between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan has left Pilot's supporters confused. After Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot spoke to Rahul Gandhi for four hours at Mallikarjun Kharge's bungalow, it was announced that the two leaders would contest the next assembly elections together, but there was no crackdown on Pilot's demands. Pilot Vasundhara Raje sought to dissolve the Rajasthan Public Service Commission investigating government corruption and set up a high-level committee to restructure and compensate the unemployed affected by the paper leak. If these three demands are not met, they have warned of fierce agitation. The Gehlot government has not accepted any of the three demands, leaving PILOT supporters confused. Congress sources say that there is still a phase of dialogue between the two and this issue will be resolved. K.C. Venugopal has confirmed this. Cracks in Congress over
Read more

China's Insidious Privacy

Image
As many important countries as there are in the world, they are ruled by almost one-man show politicians. The kind of team leadership that was traditionally used to manage and manage huge countries now appears to be dying out. Due to this, the burden of taking all decisions is placed on a single person. Hence, the possibility of making hasty or wrong decisions increases. This is the situation of the leaders of all important countries including India, Russia, China, America. China has its own top leadership of the People's Party, but its role is very limited. India has a two-tier cabinet. Besides, Rashtrapati Bhavan and Supreme Court are also ready for error correction and guidance. That readiness is sometimes expressed in the form of reprimand. However, the role of the President and the court in the practical management of the entire nation and in the formulation of policies is limited. In China, Xi Jinping enjoys absolute power. There is a Politburo and a Senate to stop them. Ch
Read more

Adhir's allegation, Mamata's daily expenses of 3 lakhs

Image
New Delhi: Trinamool Congress and Congress, the two allies of the anti-BJP Front India, have come face to face again after Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary made allegations against Mamata Banerjee. Chaudhary has alleged that Mamata Banerjee used to spend Rs 3 lakh per day in the hotel where she was staying abroad. Even after siphoning off so many rupees from the government's coffers, not a single rupee of foreign investment has come to Bengal from Mamata's foreign travel. Mamata's family members and others went abroad on the pretext of bringing foreign investment to the state and came back having fun without doing anything. Mamata went on a 12-day trip to Spain and Dubai to bring foreign investment to Bengal. The Trinamool Congress termed Chaudhary's words ridiculous and said that facilities including foreign academies will be opened soon in Bengal. That time Chaudhary's lies will be exposed. A special meeting of Shah-Nadda to convince Vasundhara In Rajas
Read more

A minor was killed in public in Delhi, people watched the spectacle

Image
- For the so-called civil society, this is like drowning with water in the lid - When Sahil stopped the witness in public and stabbed him in the stomach, there were many people around. Most of the people watching the spectacle saw Sahil stabbing the witness. In the CCTV footage, it is seen that some people pass by on the public road and turn back to see Sahil's murderous game but do not try to stop him. Seeing that Sahil was alone and there were at least twenty-twenty five people outside, if an attempt had been made to stop him, the witness could have been saved, but except for one or two people, no one tried to stop Sahil or save the witness, nor did they inform the police. The murder of Shraddha Volkar by her live-in partner Aftab Amin Poonawala, which happened exactly one year ago in Delhi, created a stir. After killing Shraddha, Aftab was caught cutting her body into pieces, keeping it in a freezer and disposing of it slowly. While the details of the Shraddha murder case ha
Read more

Uproar in UP politics due to attack on Chandrasekhar Ravan

Image
There is talk on social media that Chandrasekhar Azad himself staged the attack in an attempt to gain political advantage. - Chandrasekhar Azad Ravan is one of the most interesting characters in UP politics. Chandrasekhar is only 36 years old but has made more enemies than anyone else in UP politics. Ravana is very unpopular with the upper castes especially the Thakurs and Kshatriyas because Azad speaks harshly against the upper castes. Chandrasekhar has been speaking in the same aggressive tone against those who have been playing vote bank politics in the name of Dalits for years. Leaders who have been running their shop in the name of Dalit vote bank in UP for years feel threatened by Chandrasekhar and dislike him. Chandrasekhar is also considered by many as a pawn of BJP and Yogi Adityanath. The attack on Chandrashekhar Azad Ravan, known as the chief of Bhim Army and an extremely aggressive youth Dalit leader, in Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, has created an atmosphere of tension and
Read more

Tribal bus services: Even the tribals do not like private bus service very much

Image
JS of Gujarat State Transport Corporation. T. Bus services run across the state. Its foremost is economics, which is rarely seen by the government itself or the public. The main for-profit services of this corporation are in tribal areas. Route Chikkar makes a profit as every route that runs in remote inland tribal areas carries every Chikkar passenger. Other than that thousands of routes suffer losses. In other words, it is the tribals who give food and water to the corporation and the rupee from the hard work of the tribals comes into the possession of the corporation only by becoming a ticket fare, from which the staff of the corporation is paid. The other side of this coin is that the worst i.e. third class services of the corporation are given to the tribal areas. Third class means third class in each stage. The people of the so-called elite society are not equally familiar with the tribal area. Their ignorance is of many different levels. From time immemorial, people living in
Read more

Talking about Delhi: Government will bring home loan subsidy scheme

Image
New Delhi: The government is planning to re-implement the Home Loan Subsidy Scheme to win the Lok Sabha and the five state assembly elections to be held before it. Sources say that the central government will soon announce a Rs 60,000 crore home loan subsidy scheme for people living in raw houses, slums and rented houses in urban areas. Most likely, this scheme will be announced on Gandhi Jyanti, i.e. October 2. Under this scheme, loans of up to 9 lakh rupees will be available at subsidized interest rates starting from 3 percent to 6 percent per annum and 25 lakh people living in urban areas will benefit. This scheme will be different from the existing Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban. Sources claim that people taking loans of less than 50 lakh rupees for 20 years will be able to take advantage of this scheme. The plan will be approved in the next cabinet meeting. Modi did not look at Shivraj, did not even mention him In Madhya Pradesh, BJP has given tickets to three Union Minister
Read more

Ultimatum of Akal Takht, terrorism will flare up in Punjab?

Image
- Although Akal Takht has said that we will not do violence, but looking at the history of Akal Takht, Bhagwant Maan knows very well what this threat means. When the demand for Khalistan gained momentum in the 1970s, the Akal Takht used to advise Sufiani to behave peacefully, but through the back door he helped the militants. In fact, in 1983, due to a decision taken by the Akal Takht, terrorism flared up in Punjab. To suppress the Khalistanists who are raising their heads in Punjab, the Punjab Police has conducted an operation and put a number of Khalistanists in jail. Akal Takht has come into the fray where the Khalistanists are on the run with Sardar Amritpal Singh and the Punjab Police is pulling out all the stops to catch him. The Akal Takht is considered the highest religious institution in the Sikh sect. The Akal Takht has given an ultimatum to the Bhagwant Mann government to release all the jailed people within 24 hours. Jathedar of Akal Takht Giani Harpreet Singh criticized
Read more

Talking about Delhi: The government was shocked by the report about the China border

Image
New Delhi: There is peace on the border between India and China now, but the report presented during the DGP conference has shocked the government. According to this report, Indian Army is not patrolling 26 points out of the 65 patrolling points of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The areas from Karakoram Pass to Chumur are not being patrolled by the Indian Army so China can intrude and claim these areas. Areas that are not patrolled become buffer zones, thus weakening India's claim over them. There is a threat that China will gradually enter the region and eventually take over it. China's military is clever in taking advantage of this situation. China keeps a close watch on Indian Army movements by installing cameras on high peaks. Then the infiltration starts as soon as the opportunity arises. Voices of discontent against Yogi Adityanath in UP Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, voices of dissatisfaction against Yogi Adityanath have started to rise. The B
Read more