Rising crude prices will cripple India's economy

- It's time to look for alternatives to petrol-diesel

- The main reason for the rise in crude prices is the increase in prices by Saudi Arabia and the increase in demand for petrol-diesel globally. The Russia-Ukraine war caused a shortage of crude. As demand increases so does the balance of supply and demand. The rest of the Saudis have announced a price hike, which has led to a drought-like situation.

Petrol-diesel prices have come down as the central government last month reduced the excise duty on petrol by Rs 2 and diesel by Rs 4. Petrol-diesel prices are expected to rebound before people can enjoy the relief due to the fall in prices as global crude oil prices have started rising.

On Friday, crude oil prices were quoted at ૨૫ 15 a barrel in global markets. Given the state of global crude production and the fact that crude is still expected to become more expensive, there are fears that petrol prices may cross another century. Diesel is also close to petrol so if diesel does not cross the century then nothing will come but it will get closer to the century.

Many factors are responsible for the rise in crude prices, but the main ones are Saudi Arabia's rise in prices and global demand for petrol and diesel. The decline in crude production due to the Russia-Ukraine war was due to the shortage of crude. It has now increased the demand so the balance of demand and supply has been disturbed. The rest of Saudi Arabia has announced a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has led to a drought-like situation.

OPEC has announced that it will increase crude production in July-August, as Saudi Arabia is doing the world a favor. The world's crude business is run at the behest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This organization of 12 countries is making its mark on the world. About 20 percent of crude oil is stored in these 12 countries.

Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial, Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Venezuela are among the 15 countries in OPEC. OPEC sets the international price of crude oil in the world. All these trading countries reduce prices when they want and increase when they want.

If these countries create artificial shortages by reducing production, then prices will go up. After earning a decent amount, they can reduce the price by increasing the production. This game has been going on for years.

As a result, OPEC countries become richer and other countries are robbed. India is dependent on these countries for its petrol-diesel needs and this dependence will not diminish in any way.

Countries, including Saudi Arabia, know this, so they take advantage of it and fill their homes. His mentality is that even if the bridegroom dies, the bride dies, but Gore's thirst is filled. Whatever happens in the world, our business should be booming. Even now he has started this game.

However, all this will make our condition worse as our population is huge and our needs are very high. India's arrangement to buy crude oil at cheaper prices with Russia has also been a fiasco. No one is willing to insure crude from Russia. Because of this we have to take crude from Russia at our own risk. If anything happens to this crude ship, everything will be looted.

We can't afford to lose everything in the process of getting cheaper, so we have to buy crude from America OPEC which is expensive. It will also cause prices to rise.

For India, the depreciating rupee is also a cause for concern. The dollar is the internationally recognized currency so we have to pay for crude oil in US dollars. Now that crude prices have risen and the rupee has depreciated on the other side, we have been hit on both sides as we have to spend more rupees to get dollars. Crude prices have risen so we need more dollars so we spend more rupee.

The rupee is currently hovering around 7 against the US dollar. When Modi became the Prime Minister, it was 3 rupees per US dollar. This means that the rupee has depreciated by 3%. The dollar has risen by 50 rupees in eight years, so we have to pay 3% more to buy dollars compared to 2014.

Due to the depreciation of the rupee, our crude import bill continues to rise. At present, we spend Rs 10 lakh crore a year on crude oil.

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has predicted that if crude prices continue to rise, the crude import bill will cross Rs 3 lakh crore. If such a huge amount is spent on crude, then there is nothing left to spend for development in the country. It is time to reduce our dependence on crude oil and look for alternatives to petrol-diesel as everything we earn is used for crude oil and we are left to fend for ourselves. If all the alternatives to petrol-diesel, including electric vehicles, are not fully utilized, we will be in a very bad situation in the future.

Crude reached 7 147 in 2008

Dr. When Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister, the price of crude was around ૫ 150. In July 2009, the price of crude oil reached a record high of ૨૭ 17.5. Even though the price of crude has been above ૪ 150 for a long time, the Manmohan Singh government did not allow petrol to cross Rs 70 and diesel Rs 50.

The Manmohan Singh government did not allow the burden to fall on the people by giving continuous subsidies. When the Modi government reduced the price of crude, instead of giving the benefit to the people, it increased the revenue of the government by increasing the excise duty. When Modi became the Prime Minister in 2014, the excise duty on petrol was Rs 7.5 per liter, which has now risen to Rs 4.5.

Although the Modi government last month reduced the excise duty on petrol by Rs 3 and earlier in November 2021, the excise duty is around Rs 3. A year and a half ago, the excise duty was Rs.

When Modi became the Prime Minister, the excise duty on diesel was Rs 4.5 per liter, which has now risen to Rs 4.5 per liter. In November, the excise duty on diesel was reduced by Rs 10. Earlier, the excise duty was Rs 41.5. Earlier, diesel was cheaper than petrol but due to increase in excise duty, the prices of both have remained the same.

Crude will reach 5 175, the global recession will come

Goldman Sachs, the world's leading analyst firm, has predicted that crude prices will become more expensive in the coming year, amid concerns around the world over the rise in crude prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that crude prices will cross ૩૫ 12 a barrel in 12 months. According to Goldman's Damien Kurvalin, crude prices will not ease until the end of 203 and could rise to ડો 150 a barrel. JPMorgan's forecast is 15. According to most analysts, if crude oil stays between 50 and ૦૦ 100 a barrel, the economy will not be adversely affected, but if it crosses the ૧ 100 level, the economies of all the countries of the world will start faltering. The situation is the same now so the whole world will be in the grip of economic recession. There is a way to increase production to control crude prices but the capacity for storage of crude is limited. An even bigger problem is refining crude into petrol-diesel. Due to the limited capacity of refineries in the world, even if more crude is extracted from the land, not all crude can be made usable so there is no increase in production.