Turkey's election: Erdogan's strategy to win the second round against the third-placed party


- Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Kemal Kalchdarloo

- World Window

- Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey for 20 years and is considered the country's most powerful leader, but Erdogan's popularity has declined in recent years. For the first time in 10 years, the election has been contested

In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kalchdarloo are in a battle for the presidency. For the past 20 years, Erdoğan has been in absolute power in Turkey. In 2001, he founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and won a majority in the 2002 parliamentary elections. Erdoğan became the Prime Minister for the first time in 2003. He was elected in the next three elections and retained the post of Prime Minister till 2014. After becoming president in 2014, Erdoğan changed the parliamentary system through a referendum in 2017. Turkey's parliamentary system centered on the president rather than the prime minister. According to the new system, a leader can hold the presidency for a maximum of two terms. It has been implemented by Adoan Smartly since 2018. Erdogan was elected president in the 2018 elections, but his party did not get a majority in parliament. Currently, the Parliament is run by a coalition. Erdogan's popularity continues to decline.

In the local elections held in 2019, Erdoğan's party was defeated after 23 years in Ankara and Istanbul. The party's vote share is falling. Turkey's new presidential system allows the president to serve two terms. Erdoğan has been president once, so this election will technically be his last term. Unless someone changes it after winning the election! It is also possible that power will be based on the Prime Minister again and Erdogan will become the Prime Minister in the next election. But it is mandatory for all of them to win this election. Given Turkey's two-decade electoral history, Erdoğan has been winning easily until now. There is no challenge that they are afraid of losing. But this time the situation is different. Rival leader is strong. Has a bright image.

Born in 1948 in Tunseli, Turkey, Kamal Kalchdarloo has been a high-ranking official of the Turkish government. Gazi joined the Turkish civil service with a degree in economics from University. In 1999, he came into politics after taking voluntary retirement from civil service. Since 2010, he has been the leader of the Republican People's Party and the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament. Kamal Kalachdarloo is getting massive public support. Earlier, he had won the trust of the people by traveling 450 kilometers. Kamal Kalchdarloo increased the problem of Erdoğan even before the election by campaigning across the country on issues including corruption. Kemal Kalchdarloo, who has emerged as an ardent critic of Erdoğan, ran a close contest with 45 percent of the votes in the first round of voting. Erdoğan got 49.4 percent of the votes. A leader named Sinan Oman got 5.2 percent of the votes. According to Turkey's electoral system, if one leader does not get 50 percent of the vote, a second round of elections is held. There is a war between the two main leaders. The second phase of the election will be held on May 28. In which there will be a clash between Erdoğan and Kamal.

Erdoğan is heavily entrenched in Turkey's system and is expected to win as the most powerful leader, although Kemal Kalçdarloo is determined to get more than 50 percent of the vote. Amidst these developments, Sinan Oman, the leader of the number three party, announced his support for Erdogan. Erdoğan got 49 percent of the votes. If Erdogan gets even three percent of Oman's five percent vote, he will win. This alliance has been formed since that calculation.

Turkey's unemployment rate has risen. Inflation is also skyrocketing and the citizens are upset due to rising prices. The government's relief efforts were heavily criticized after the devastating earthquake in Turkey. After the earthquake, there were complaints that the government did not take the necessary steps, resulting in countless people still not receiving assistance. People are angry with Erdoğan. Also, in the last tenure, Erdoğan has been controversial in terms of foreign policy. Turkey's relations with the West have deteriorated. Friction has also increased with neighboring countries. Significantly, he took the initiative to improve relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia, although Turkey-Greece relations were strained, resulting in the deepening of the Aegean Sea dispute. Turkey-Greece have been at loggerheads over the Aegean Sea for decades. Since mineral reserves have been found in that sea, a new controversy has arisen regarding its allocation.

The refugee crisis has led to criticism of Erdoğan's policies. 3.7 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey. Hundreds of refugees have come to Turkey from Afghanistan itself. Turkey's economy is severely affected by these refugees. Turkey had an agreement with the European Union on the issue of these refugees. The countries of the European Union were supposed to help Turkey in this and once peace was established in Syria-Afghanistan, there was a plan to send these refugees back to their homeland, but now the European Union does not pay attention to this. This issue was raised by Kamal in the election and he made an election promise that if he gets power, he will first break the agreement with the European Union and send the refugees back to Syria-Afghanistan.

Erdogan's political policies have been blamed for the rise of religious fanaticism in Turkey. Turkey's tendency has been to intervene in Islamic countries. Majority of people are not in that party. Citizens want internal development and employment opportunities instead of religious fanaticism. People want to be governed in the same way that Kemal Pasha founded the country with the reformist policy. Erdoğan's rival, Kemal Kalchdarloo, has made an election promise to improve relations with the West by reducing religious fanaticism. Turkey has the largest military in NATO, but opposition to Turkey has grown within NATO as Erdogan's foreign policy has oscillated between Russia and the United States. Kamal expressed his determination to build a stronger relationship with NATO. Apart from that, Turkish army is fighting in Iraq, Syria, Libya. Due to this war, Turkey incurs huge economic losses. Kamal Kalachdarloo expressed his readiness to consider withdrawing troops from those countries.

Although Turkey's number one party, the APK, has formed a coalition with Oman's number three party, Kemal's popularity has grown as he has a different ideology from Erdogan. Knowing that Kemal is trailing Erdoğan by only five percent of the votes in Kalchdarloo, it would not be surprising if the atmosphere turns in his favor. Citizens are looking for an alternative, Kamal has created an alternative.

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